Upcoming Presidential Election: How second and third preferences will matter

Upcoming Presidential Election: How second and third preferences will matter

11 Aug 2024

Upcoming Presidential Election: How second and third preferences will matter

With the next crucial Presidential Election slated to be held on 21 September, Sri Lanka is gearing up to a number of election outcomes. 

Traditionally, the country has seen two main frontrunners dominating the polls, making the final count relatively straightforward. However, this year’s election may present a different scenario, with some analysts suggesting that it could be a three-way race. This potential scenario raises questions of whether any one candidate would get the required 50% to win the election. 

To understand the legal framework in place for a potential second count of votes, The Sunday Morning spoke with election monitors and the Election Commission. 

50% + 1 vote 

Speaking to The Sunday Morning, Commissioner General of Elections Saman Sri Ratnayake said that according to the Presidential Elections Act No.15 of 1981, in order for one candidate to win, they must obtain 50% and one vote. 

“If nobody receives 50% and one vote in the first count, then the two leading candidates – that is, those two who have received the highest number of votes – are considered for the second count. Votes for these two leading candidates are temporarily set aside and everyone who voted for the other candidates are considered – that is, the votes for the other candidates. From these, the second and third preferences are counted towards the first two candidates,” said Ratnayake. 

He noted that some voters may not have the leading candidates as their second or third preference, resulting in their votes being set aside. 

“Some may not have either one of the first two candidates as their second preference but would have them as their third preference. That will be counted,” said Ratnayake.

The highest number wins in second round 

Institute for Democratic Reforms and Electoral Studies (IRES) Executive Director Manjula Gajanayake clarified the process, noting that if no candidate was able to collect the required 50% and one vote to win the election, the first and second candidates would be kept aside and the preferential votes cast by those who voted for the remaining candidates counted. 

“For example, if there are ten candidates, the first and second ones will be kept aside and the preferential votes of those who voted for the other eight candidates will be counted. These will be gradually added to the first or the second candidate. Both of these two votes can be counted in one round. 

“Once one of those two candidates gets the highest votes, the Election Commission will reveal the winner. Importantly, the 50% law will not be considered in the second round – whoever gets the highest number of votes will win.” 

Casting your vote 

Ratnayake said that the least number of candidates in an election historically has been six. As of Thursday (8), the Election Commission said that 22 candidates had officially placed bond deposits, marking their intention to run this time. 

“When there are more than three candidates, voters can cast their vote by marking ‘1’ and show their next preferences using the numbers ‘2’ and ‘3’,” said Ratnayake. 

“However, our voters have become accustomed to drawing the cross so if someone draws a cross, we equalise it to ‘1’ or their vote. There is less understanding about the second and third preference votes.” 

Elections researcher and analyst, Attorney-at-Law D.M. Dissanayake further warned that marking three crosses on the ballot paper or one cross and the numbers ‘2’ and ‘3’ would make the vote invalid.

Coin toss

Commenting on whether the second count should be done within a specific timeframe, Dissanayake said that there was no such rule. 

“Usually the first count is sent to the main tabulation centre, which will then announce whether a candidate has obtained the 50% requirement to win the election. The general practice of the staff is to count the second preferences as well, immediately after they count the vote, as they’re waiting for the main centre to dismiss them. Therefore, the whole process won’t take a long time.”

However, both Dissanayake and Gajanayake said that the chance of such a situation arising – where a second count would be needed – was unlikely.

“This hasn’t happened before. We have always voted for two main candidates. That is the trend – even though this time there are many candidates, two will rise to the top,” said Dissanayake. 

Gajanayake said that this was an inherent feature of Sri Lanka’s electoral system which promotes an executive-level individual.

“If the race is tied even after the second count, the Election Commission can toss a coin to determine the winner.”

Modest contingency electoral system

Gajanayake pointed out that Sri Lanka had adopted the practice of counting the second and third preferential votes in case of no clear winner as we had no money to conduct a run-off election.

“In France and the Maldives, if someone is unable to collect the required votes to win, run-off elections will be held. This happened in the Maldives a few months back because none of the candidates was able to collect 50%, so there was another election between the first two candidates. 

“The US President is chosen according to the electoral college. However, in Sri Lanka we have a ‘modest contingency electoral system’ where we have enough alternatives to elect our President in one election,” said Gajanayake.

https://www.themorning.lk/articles/bt85uWhYKujQLhqdnGj6

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Writer and Journalist living in Canada since 1987. Tamil activist.

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